HOW DO I KNOW WHEN IT’S TIME FOR ME TO INVEST?

Question: The stock market is at an all time high. Does that mean it is a good time to get back in, or is it too late?
 
Answer: Last week we took note of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s historical passage of the 15,000 mark.
 
Was this good news or bad? The answer, of course, is yes…good news for the person who has been invested in the markets for the past five years. Not so good news for the person now wishing they’d gotten in “early.” Unfortunately, that train has left the station.
 
I find that most people who try to time their investments to the ups and downs of the market rarely make progress. The “right time” never emerges from the fog in time to do them any good. They are left feeling a year or two late and many, many dollars short.
 
So how do you know it’s time to invest? Time for YOU to invest?
 
Stop looking at all the circumstances around you and start looking deep within…within your own financial life and aspirations.
 
It is my opinion that you should not invest one dime in the financial markets until you’ve taken care of these other aspects of your financial plan:
 
Protection. Protection means putting up safety nets that keep you from losing all you’ve worked for in the event of a financial catastrophe. This may involve insurance, legal documents, how you own things and where you own them. Work with knowledgeable professionals – licensed and experienced insurance agents, attorneys who specialize in asset protection and financial planners who can coordinate the mix.
 
I ask clients to imagine they could buy the insurance policy or construct the legal contract after the catastrophic event occurred. If you consider what you would want at that time, you realize that’s what you need to put in place now. Because anything else will leave you unhappy with the result.
 
Savings. You need to get in the habit of saving first, then spend what’s left over. You can start small, but don’t stay there. Work up to the place where you’re saving 15% of your income. Do that until you’ve got about 50% of your annual income in a safe, accessible savings account. That could take you three to five years if you are starting from scratch. That’s OK.
 
Spending plan. If you are saving the first 15% of your income, you can spend the rest on whatever you want. Just don’t spend more. Which brings us to….
 
Debt plan. Work to pay down expensive consumer debt. As your savings grow, borrow from yourself to buy expensive consumer items, but remember to pay yourself back (with interest!).
 
Investment plan. Remember – don’t take investment risks until you’ve taken care of all the above items. Investing is complicated, requiring a disciplined approach and a thick skin. Having all the prior pieces of your financial plan in place will give you “investment stamina.” You’ll avoid getting too excited about the highs, and you won’t be overly discouraged by the inevitable lows.
 
The secret is having a plan.
 
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Byron R. Moore, CFP® is managing director / planning group of Argent Advisors, Inc. Email him at bmoore@argentmoney.com. Write to him at 500 East Reynolds Drive, Ruston, LA 71270 or call him at (318) 251-5858. The views expressed in the preceding commentary do not necessarily reflect the views of Argent Advisors, Inc. No forecasts can be guaranteed.  Argent Advisors, Inc. does not offer tax, insurance or legal advice. The information contained in this column should not be construed as a substitute for personalized investment, tax, insurance or legal advice.
 
 
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DOW 15,0000 – TIME TO CELEBRATE OR HESITATE?

Question: The stock market is at an all time high. Does that mean it is a good time to get back in, or is it too late?
 
Answer: One thing we know for sure – it’s a great time to be in the stock market…assuming you got in four years ago.
 
Is it a good time to get in now? Well, let’s think about that a bit…
 
Four years ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at around 8500. Since then, it has climbed about 15% per year to the present level of about 15,000. All that proves is that hind-sight is 20/20.
 
Today, it’s easy to forget the fear that permeated the world’s financial system in the spring of 2009. The Dow (along with every other major equity index) was significantly down in value near the low point of the economic crisis, having lost approximately half its value between late 2007 and May of 2009. Only a few brave souls were putting money into that market.
 
What’s been driving up the market these past four years? My opinion plus a $5 bill will always buy you a venti skinny caramel macchiato (no foam, no whip, low fat) at Starbucks, but here’s how I see it:
 
Better economic environment. We’ve steadily come back from the brink of disaster. That doesn’t mean it’s all “happy days are here again,” but the housing market seems to have hit bottom and started back up (slowly). Consumers are spending again. Things have gotten enough better that folks have dared to venture back into the markets again.
 
Better earnings. Corporate America got busy cutting costs early in the crisis and have stayed lean. Notice how stubbornly high the unemployment rate is. But that also means that more revenues have dropped to the bottom line, increasing profits and driving up share prices.
 
No better alternatives. Thanks to Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve, bank deposits and fixed income instruments (bonds) are paying little or nothing to depositors and bond holders. The result is exactly what the Fed wanted: money flowing into the stock market, driving up prices, pumping up the so-called wealth effect and encouraging consumers to start consuming once again.
 
It all seems to be working so nicely…for now.
 
But therein comes the rub. The Fed can’t keep interest rates artificially low forever. As economic activity continues to accelerate, the Fed is watching closely for any signs of inflation. Historically, as unemployment goes down (driving up payroll costs for corporate America), that tends to ignite inflationary forces.
 
No one knows when (or even if) inflation will become a problem in this economic cycle. But if it does begin to show itself, look for the Fed to raise interest rates, thereby enabling banks to pay depositors more than fractional interest on their deposits.
 
And once depositors again have a safe alternative to earn a bit of interest, I think the effect on the stock market will be…interesting to say the least.
 
Next week, we’ll look at how to decide for yourself when is the right time to invest.
 
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Byron R. Moore, CFP® is managing director / planning group of Argent Advisors, Inc. Email him at bmoore@argentmoney.com. Write to him at 500 East Reynolds Drive, Ruston, LA 71270 or call him at (318) 251-5858. The views expressed in the preceding commentary do not necessarily reflect the views of Argent Advisors, Inc. No forecasts can be guaranteed. Argent Advisors, Inc. does not offer tax, insurance or legal advice. The information contained in this column should not be construed as a substitute for personalized investment, tax, insurance or legal advice.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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